Trend Momentum Index

Which trends are the most important? Which should we address in our strategy to ensure long-term success? How can we be sure that now is a good time to invest in technology related to a trend? And how do you know if a trend is a long-term change and not another bubble?

These are questions that companies often ask themselves today. For they are operating and making decisions in a very difficult reality. The pace of contemporary change – technological, social, economic and political – is so fast that it is difficult for organisations to keep up with it. In addition, due to the number of these changes and the connections between them, it is also difficult to understand them. And finally, in the age of algorithms, deepfakes and artificially generated popularity, it is difficult to distinguish real change from momentary excitement.

To help companies operate in such a reality, infuture.institute has developed theTrend Momentum Index (TMI),an indicator to assess the relevance of trends. The TMI assesses each trend on two dimensions:

• Hype – indicates how popular (media and/or investment) a trend is,
• Impact – indicates the extent to which a trend has a real, significant, long-term impact on the functioning of the organisation/society/economy/sustainability.

How is the TMI calculated?

The TMI is calculated dynamically on the basis of a wide range of data, including, inter alia, regulations introduced, research, patents filed, impact on sustainability goals, investments or the value of individual markets. It takes into account data obtained through methods such as text mining, Delphi research, in-depth qualitative interviews, among others. It uses machine learning and developments in the field of artificial intelligence to analyse large volumes of data in multiple languages (Polish, English, Spanish, Portuguese, Korean, Chinese, Japanese, etc.). This ensures that trends are analysed both locally and globally, and not just within the influence of the English language.

In what situations is TMI useful?

MAKING INFORMED STRATEGIC DECISIONS
including on product strategy, communication or sustainability (a company may decide that it is profitable for it to invest in trends that have a high HYPE index, especially if it is building its image as an innovative company/brand ahead of the competition or the market).

MAKING STRATEGIC DECISIONS
regarding when to respond to a trend (early in its development or only after it has reached a certain level of maturity).

ASSESSING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS AND REDUCING INVESTMENT RISKS
i.e. differentiating trends according to their media popularity and real impact; it is also helpful in assessing one’s own actions towards developing trends (how much a company responds to a trend in its operational activities depending on the value of the HYPE or IMPACT indicator).

DIFFERENTIATING TRENDS
that have the greatest potential impact on the company’s growth from those that are only popular with the media (eliminating media hype).

COMPARING YOUR OWN KNOWLEDGE
on trends with objective analysis from multiple sources.